Halving planning: model subsidy cuts without the folklore

At every 210,000-block boundary (≈4 years) the block subsidy halves — new issuance per block drops 50%. That is the only mechanical change. Price, fee volume, your tariff, and your pool's terms do not move because of a date on a calendar; they move for their own reasons.

• Folklore 1 — 'the price must double': no rule enforces it; markets have done different things each cycle.
• Folklore 2 — 'my revenue halves': only the subsidy component does; fee revenue is untouched.
• Folklore 3 — 'it happens on a known date': it happens at a block height; the calendar date is an estimate.

Split gross revenue into subsidy-linked and fee-linked parts, then halve only the first one. Round numbers: $8/day from subsidy + $2/day from fees. Post-halving, holding everything else constant: $4 + $2 = $6/day, a 40% cut — not 50%.

Before a halving: lock or verify tariffs (Energy track), improve efficiency (J/TH), budget an operating reserve sized for months of the reduced margin, and know your shutdown threshold — the electricity price at which each machine costs more than it earns. Inefficient machines exit first; that is also when used-hardware bargains (and trash) appear.

The emission-schedules lesson lines up five live halving/decay designs — Bitcoin's era math next to SOQ's, PRL's, BNT's, and MDS's — so you can compare how each chain plans its security budget.